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However, in accepting such obligations, You may act only + on Your own behalf and on Your sole responsibility, not on behalf + of any other Contributor, and only if You agree to indemnify, + defend, and hold each Contributor harmless for any liability + incurred by, or claims asserted against, such Contributor by reason + of your accepting any such warranty or additional liability. diff --git a/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/SKILL.md b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b55e5d20 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ +--- +name: cambrian-crocodile-investing +description: Analyze companies, industries, or portfolio ideas with a "Cambrian Crocodile" style commodity-cycle value framework. Use when Codex needs to extract or apply 寒武纪的鳄鱼's investing methodology, summarize his thinking, judge whether an opportunity matches his style, or produce an investment memo centered on production assets, supply-demand cycles, low-price accumulation, patience, and cash-flow discipline. +--- + +# Cambrian Crocodile Investing + +## Overview + +Use this skill to reason in the style attributed to 寒武纪的鳄鱼: treat stocks as claims on real productive assets, focus on cyclical price movements, buy heavy-asset producers when pessimism is deep, and wait for the cycle to pay. + +Do not present this as generic value investing. Center the analysis on supply, demand, cost curves, industry capacity, liquidation pressure, and time horizon. + +Read [references/methodology.md](references/methodology.md) before writing a full analysis. Read [references/source-notes.md](references/source-notes.md) when you need the evidence boundary or need to explain which conclusions are direct extraction versus reasoned inference. + +## Workflow + +1. Identify the asset being analyzed. +2. Decide whether the business is a fit for this framework. +3. Map the cycle. +4. Judge the downside carrying capacity. +5. Judge the upside asymmetry. +6. Produce a conclusion in this style. + +## Step 1: Identify The Asset + +Start from the real-world object, not the ticker. + +Answer these questions first: + +- What does this company actually produce or control? +- Which physical or productive asset matters most: mines, fields, factories, acreage, distribution rights, loan book, land bank, or licenses? +- Which commodity, factor price, or balance-sheet variable drives profit? +- Is the company a price taker living inside a cycle, or a stable compounding franchise? + +If the business is mainly brand-driven, software-driven, or dependent on perpetual multiple expansion, say clearly that this framework is a weak fit. + +## Step 2: Decide Whether The Style Fits + +Score fit across four dimensions: + +- Asset heaviness: Are there real productive assets beneath the equity? +- Cyclicality: Do price, supply, or demand swing enough to create mispricing? +- Survivability: Can the company endure a bad cycle without terminal impairment? +- Simplicity: Can the main variable be observed from the outside world? + +Use this style aggressively only when at least three dimensions are strong. + +## Step 3: Map The Cycle + +Trace the cycle in this order: + +1. Supply response +2. Demand response +3. Inventory or capacity utilization +4. Producer profitability +5. Capital expenditure response +6. Market expectations and valuation + +Prefer observable facts such as output, acreage, rigs, smelter utilization, housing starts, spreads, freight, imports, exports, or spot prices. Avoid beginning with management storytelling. + +When writing, make the cycle explicit: + +- What created the glut or bust? +- What is being forced out of the system? +- What would tighten supply? +- What would create scarcity or pricing power? +- What signal would prove the thesis is early versus wrong? + +## Step 4: Judge Downside Carrying Capacity + +This style cares about surviving the wait. Evaluate: + +- Net debt and refinancing pressure +- Fixed-cost burden +- Cash cost position on the industry curve +- Asset quality versus accounting value +- Dividend or internal cash generation that pays you to wait +- Management's willingness to dilute, overbuild, or lever up at the wrong time + +Do not call something "cheap" if the balance sheet cannot outlast the cycle. + +## Step 5: Judge Upside Asymmetry + +Look for setups where a small change in price or utilization causes a large change in equity value. + +Prioritize: + +- Deep pessimism already embedded in price +- Operating leverage to recovery +- Asset replacement value above current enterprise value +- A catalyst that comes from industry tightening rather than corporate promotion +- A holding period that may be long and boring before it becomes obvious + +Frame the payoff as "buy low, wait, collect, and let the cycle do the heavy lifting." + +## Step 6: Produce The Conclusion + +Write the answer in five blocks: + +1. Core thesis in 2-4 sentences +2. Why this matches or does not match the style +3. Cycle map +4. Risk controls and invalidation signals +5. Verdict: watch, accumulate slowly, build position aggressively, hold patiently, trim into euphoria, or reject + +## Style Rules + +Use plain language and concrete economics. + +Do: + +- Talk about productive assets, supply destruction, replacement cost, and patience +- Emphasize price paid and time horizon +- Distinguish "temporarily bad" from "permanently impaired" +- Prefer a concentrated list of decisive variables over long factor laundry lists +- State when a conclusion is an inference rather than a documented view + +Do not: + +- Drift into short-term trading language +- Rely mainly on chart patterns, sentiment indicators, or management slogans +- Treat valuation multiples as sufficient by themselves +- Force this framework onto asset-light growth companies +- Ignore debt, dilution risk, or financing risk + +## Output Template + +```markdown +## 寒武纪鳄鱼风格结论 + +### 核心判断 +- ... + +### 风格匹配度 +- 匹配点: +- 偏离点: + +### 周期位置 +- 当前更像: +- 关键观测变量: + +### 买入逻辑 +- ... + +### 风险与证伪 +- ... + +### 操作倾向 +- 观察 / 轻仓埋伏 / 逐步加仓 / 耐心持有 / 景气兑现后减仓 / 放弃 +``` + +## Non-Fit Cases + +Say the framework is low-confidence when any of these dominate: + +- Growth depends on product iteration more than asset scarcity +- Value depends mainly on regulation or one-off policy discretion +- Financial statements are too opaque to judge survivability +- The business has no clear external cycle to observe + +In those cases, explain the mismatch instead of forcing a false precision. diff --git a/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/agents/openai.yaml b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/agents/openai.yaml new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fa4203eb --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/agents/openai.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +interface: + display_name: "寒武纪鳄鱼投资法" + short_description: "提炼寒武纪的鳄鱼的周期价值投资框架、偏好与分析流程" + default_prompt: "Use $cambrian-crocodile-investing to analyze this company with a commodity-cycle, low-price, patient-holding framework." diff --git a/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/methodology.md b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/methodology.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fbfbca03 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/methodology.md @@ -0,0 +1,159 @@ +# 寒武纪的鳄鱼投资方法论提炼 + +## 使用说明 + +这份文档用于给 skill 提供领域知识,不是给终端用户直接展示的长文。优先把这里的内容压缩成简洁判断,再输出。 + +## 方法论主轴 + +可归纳为六条主线: + +1. 把股票看成对生产资料和现金流的所有权,而不是行情筹码 +2. 把价格波动的根源归结为商品价格、供需与产能周期 +3. 在行业最悲观、资产被错杀时慢慢买,而不是在景气确认后追 +4. 依靠时间而不是频繁交易兑现收益 +5. 重视分红、资产质量和资产负债表,保证自己能熬到反转 +6. 在景气极盛、市场一致乐观时退出一部分甚至大部分 + +## 典型世界观 + +他的公开表达中反复出现以下世界观,分析时应优先调用: + +- 财富最终来自对稀缺资产、生产资料和现金流的占有 +- 大钱往往不是来自精细择时,而是来自低价拿到好资产后等待周期回归 +- 股票只是工具,本质上是在间接囤积某种生产能力或资源品敞口 +- 周期股最重要的是赔率和位置,而不是季度报表的线性外推 +- 真正危险的不是波动,而是在错误的位置上承担高杠杆和永久损失 + +## 选股偏好 + +偏好的资产通常具备这些特征: + +- 重资产 +- 可量化的供给约束 +- 盈利高度受商品价格、利差、房价、库存周期或政策周期影响 +- 行业历史上出现过明显繁荣与衰退切换 +- 低估值、高股息或较强资产支撑,允许长期持有 + +常见映射行业: + +- 资源品与上游材料 +- 能源与强周期制造 +- 银行等依赖资产负债表定价的行业 +- 地产及其链条 +- 其他受产能出清和价格恢复驱动的行业 + +## 核心分析框架 + +### 1. 先看“这家公司到底拥有什么” + +先回答: + +- 拥有何种可再生产或不可再生产的资产 +- 这些资产在行业中的成本位置如何 +- 这些资产是否可能在下行期被低估、在上行期被重估 + +不要先从 PE、K 线或故事入手。 + +### 2. 再看“驱动利润的那个价格变量” + +找到真正驱动利润弹性的核心变量,例如: + +- 煤价、铜价、油价、锂价 +- 房价、土储去化、拿地成本 +- 净息差、信用成本、不良率 +- 开工率、库存、运价、价差 + +如果找不到一个主导变量,这种风格的适配度通常就会下降。 + +### 3. 看行业是在扩张、出清还是反转早期 + +重点判断: + +- 过去几年资本开支是否过度 +- 当前行业有没有明显亏损或出清 +- 新增供给是否受限 +- 需求是否边际改善 +- 市场预期是否仍停留在坏时候的叙事中 + +### 4. 看公司能不能熬 + +不是所有周期反转都值得等,前提是企业活得到反转。 + +关键点: + +- 债务期限和再融资能力 +- 现金成本和现金流 +- 是否高分红或至少不持续失血 +- 管理层会不会在底部扩张、并购、稀释股权 + +### 5. 看买价是否足够低 + +这套风格对买点要求很高。低位的含义通常不是技术图形上的低,而是: + +- 市值相对重置成本很便宜 +- PB、股息率、EV/资产处于历史偏低区 +- 市场对行业未来过度悲观 +- 盈利处在周期低谷,导致静态 PE 看起来失真 + +### 6. 看卖出的时机是否来自“拥挤的乐观” + +更偏向在这些时刻减仓: + +- 全行业利润暴增,资本市场一致看多 +- 新增产能重新大举进入 +- 估值和叙事都回到高位 +- 原本的低价保护垫已经消失 + +## 操作风格 + +可概括为: + +- 少动 +- 慢买 +- 敢等 +- 不追 +- 不依赖高频判断 + +仓位行为往往更像分阶段埋伏: + +- 极度低估时建立底仓 +- 逻辑进一步验证但价格仍不贵时加仓 +- 持有到景气和估值同时修复 +- 在狂热阶段兑现 + +## 风险控制偏好 + +提炼出的风控偏好主要是: + +- 不把杠杆建立在不可控的短期波动上 +- 对永久损失比对账面回撤更敏感 +- 不碰自己看不懂盈利引擎的公司 +- 不因为短期价格上涨就修改长期逻辑 +- 不因为短期价格下跌就否定已验证的资产价值 + +## 与常见价值投资的差异 + +与稳定复利型价值投资不同,这套框架更偏向: + +- 允许利润大起大落 +- 更依赖周期位置 +- 更重视赔率而非持续高 ROE +- 关注资产与供给,而不只关注品牌与管理 + +与纯博弈型周期交易不同,它又保留了价值锚: + +- 资产支撑 +- 低买入价 +- 分红或现金流缓冲 +- 尽量避免纯故事股 + +## 输出时要保留的语气 + +输出时尽量呈现这些气质: + +- 先讲物,再讲票 +- 先讲周期,再讲估值 +- 先讲能不能活,再讲能赚多少 +- 不追求精确预测拐点,追求在错误较少的位置下注 +- 承认等待是收益来源的一部分 diff --git a/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/source-notes.md b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/source-notes.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3116bd31 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/references/source-notes.md @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +# 来源边界与归纳说明 + +## 用途 + +这份文档说明哪些内容是基于公开可检索表述的稳定提炼,哪些属于为了构造 skill 而做的结构化归纳。输出给用户时,不要把所有归纳都伪装成逐字原话。 + +## 可稳定确认的公开特征 + +基于公开网页检索结果,可以较稳定确认以下几点: + +- “寒武纪的鳄鱼”以投资写作为主,公开讨论过周期、商品、资产价格与股票投资 +- 其系列文章或转引中多次出现“股海无疆”等主题,强调价格波动、商品理解、等待与低位持有 +- 公开传播内容呈现出明显的周期价值倾向,而不是成长叙事或短线交易倾向 +- 讨论对象常落在资源、银行、地产、商品等更接近资产负债表和产业周期的领域 + +## 结构化归纳部分 + +以下内容是为了让 skill 可执行而做的整理,不应表述为逐字原文: + +- 六步分析流程 +- 四维风格匹配评分 +- 输出模板中的固定栏目 +- “资产 heaviness / cyclicality / survivability / simplicity” 这类英文标签 + +这些属于把公开风格压缩为可复用分析工具。 + +## 输出时的表述规则 + +当用户要求“总结他的风格”时,可以直接给出归纳。 + +当用户要求“严格基于原文,不要推断”时: + +- 只陈述可稳定确认的主张 +- 使用“从其公开表述看”“可归纳为”“更接近于”之类措辞 +- 明确说明哪些部分是分析框架化处理,不是作者原文目录 + +## 当前材料局限 + +当前 skill 建立在公开网页搜索可获取的内容之上,而不是作者全部知乎文章归档。由于知乎和第三方转载的可见性有限,这份 skill 更适合: + +- 复现其稳定投资风格 +- 模拟其决策偏好 +- 判断某个标的是否符合他的路数 + +它不适合: + +- 假装覆盖作者每一篇文章的细枝末节 +- 对具体个股给出“他一定会买/卖”的确定性判断 + +## 如果后续补充材料 + +如果用户提供作者原文合集、知乎回答导出、截图或长文存档,应优先更新: + +1. `references/source-notes.md` 中的证据边界 +2. `references/methodology.md` 中的偏好排序 +3. `SKILL.md` 中的输出模板和禁忌事项