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[Stack 13/17] Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount)#2520

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[Stack 13/17] Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount)#2520
jucor wants to merge 1 commit intospr/edge/48b77ba3from
spr/edge/23c03d70

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@jucor jucor commented Mar 30, 2026

Summary

The Python two_prop_test used a standard two-proportion z-test with no pseudocounts,
while Clojure's stats/two-prop-test (stats.clj:18-33) adds +1 to all four inputs
(succ-in, succ-out, pop-in, pop-out) via (map inc ...) before computing
the pooled z-test. This Laplace smoothing regularizes z-scores for small group sizes,
which are common in Polis conversations.

Changes

  • Signature change: two_prop_test(p1, n1, p2, n2) (proportions) →
    two_prop_test(succ_in, succ_out, pop_in, pop_out) (raw counts)
  • Formula: Standard pooled z-test on pseudocount-adjusted values:
    pi1 = (succ_in+1)/(pop_in+1), pi_hat = (s1+s2)/(p1+p2)
  • Callers updated: Both scalar (add_comparative_stats) and vectorized
    (compute_group_comment_stats_df) now pass raw counts matching Clojure's
    (stats/two-prop-test (:na in-stats) (sum :na rest-stats) (:ns in-stats) (sum :ns rest-stats))
    (repness.clj:97-100)

Affected output fields

  • rat (agree representativeness test z-score)
  • rdt (disagree representativeness test z-score)
  • agree_metric, disagree_metric (downstream of rat/rdt)

Test plan

  • Targeted D6 tests pass (formula, edge cases, regularization effect)
  • Full test suite passes (excluding DynamoDB/MinIO tests)
  • Private dataset tests pass (--include-local)
  • Golden snapshots re-recorded for all 7 datasets

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Squashed commits

  • RED: add D6 blob injection test (two_prop_test vs Clojure repness-test)
  • Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount)
  • Plan: add D6 PR number and stack position to cross-reference

commit-id:23c03d70


Stack:


⚠️ Part of a stack created by spr. Do not merge manually using the UI - doing so may have unexpected results.

@jucor jucor changed the title Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount) [Stack 13/17] Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount) Mar 30, 2026
@jucor jucor force-pushed the spr/edge/48b77ba3 branch from f593bae to cd39374 Compare March 30, 2026 22:39
@jucor jucor force-pushed the spr/edge/23c03d70 branch 2 times, most recently from d92e3f2 to be320d5 Compare March 30, 2026 22:47
## Summary


The Python `two_prop_test` used a standard two-proportion z-test with no pseudocounts,
while Clojure's `stats/two-prop-test` (stats.clj:18-33) adds +1 to all four inputs
(`succ-in`, `succ-out`, `pop-in`, `pop-out`) via `(map inc ...)` before computing
the pooled z-test. This Laplace smoothing regularizes z-scores for small group sizes,
which are common in Polis conversations.

## Changes
- **Signature change**: `two_prop_test(p1, n1, p2, n2)` (proportions) →
  `two_prop_test(succ_in, succ_out, pop_in, pop_out)` (raw counts)
- **Formula**: Standard pooled z-test on pseudocount-adjusted values:
  `pi1 = (succ_in+1)/(pop_in+1)`, `pi_hat = (s1+s2)/(p1+p2)`
- **Callers updated**: Both scalar (`add_comparative_stats`) and vectorized
  (`compute_group_comment_stats_df`) now pass raw counts matching Clojure's
  `(stats/two-prop-test (:na in-stats) (sum :na rest-stats) (:ns in-stats) (sum :ns rest-stats))`
  (repness.clj:97-100)

## Affected output fields
- `rat` (agree representativeness test z-score)
- `rdt` (disagree representativeness test z-score)
- `agree_metric`, `disagree_metric` (downstream of rat/rdt)

## Test plan
- [x] Targeted D6 tests pass (formula, edge cases, regularization effect)
- [x] Full test suite passes (excluding DynamoDB/MinIO tests)
- [x] Private dataset tests pass (--include-local)
- [x] Golden snapshots re-recorded for all 7 datasets

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)


## Squashed commits

- RED: add D6 blob injection test (two_prop_test vs Clojure repness-test)
- Fix D6: match Clojure two-proportion test formula (+1 pseudocount)
- Plan: add D6 PR number and stack position to cross-reference

commit-id:23c03d70
@jucor jucor force-pushed the spr/edge/23c03d70 branch from be320d5 to c30ab91 Compare March 31, 2026 00:35
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Delphi Coverage Report

File Stmts Miss Cover
init.py 2 0 100%
benchmarks/bench_pca.py 76 76 0%
benchmarks/bench_repness.py 81 81 0%
benchmarks/bench_update_votes.py 38 38 0%
benchmarks/benchmark_utils.py 34 34 0%
components/init.py 1 0 100%
components/config.py 165 133 19%
conversation/init.py 2 0 100%
conversation/conversation.py 1107 320 71%
conversation/manager.py 131 42 68%
database/init.py 1 0 100%
database/dynamodb.py 387 234 40%
database/postgres.py 305 205 33%
pca_kmeans_rep/init.py 5 0 100%
pca_kmeans_rep/clusters.py 257 22 91%
pca_kmeans_rep/corr.py 98 17 83%
pca_kmeans_rep/pca.py 52 16 69%
pca_kmeans_rep/repness.py 312 34 89%
regression/init.py 4 0 100%
regression/clojure_comparer.py 188 17 91%
regression/comparer.py 887 720 19%
regression/datasets.py 135 27 80%
regression/recorder.py 36 27 25%
regression/utils.py 138 94 32%
run_math_pipeline.py 260 114 56%
umap_narrative/500_generate_embedding_umap_cluster.py 210 109 48%
umap_narrative/501_calculate_comment_extremity.py 112 53 53%
umap_narrative/502_calculate_priorities.py 135 135 0%
umap_narrative/700_datamapplot_for_layer.py 502 502 0%
umap_narrative/701_static_datamapplot_for_layer.py 310 310 0%
umap_narrative/702_consensus_divisive_datamapplot.py 432 432 0%
umap_narrative/801_narrative_report_batch.py 785 785 0%
umap_narrative/802_process_batch_results.py 265 265 0%
umap_narrative/803_check_batch_status.py 175 175 0%
umap_narrative/llm_factory_constructor/init.py 2 2 0%
umap_narrative/llm_factory_constructor/model_provider.py 157 157 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/init.py 1 0 100%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/cli.py 270 270 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/core/init.py 3 3 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/core/clustering.py 108 108 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/core/embedding.py 104 104 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/lambda_handler.py 219 219 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/schemas/init.py 2 0 100%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/schemas/dynamo_models.py 160 9 94%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/tests/conftest.py 17 17 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/tests/test_clustering.py 74 74 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/tests/test_embedding.py 55 55 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/tests/test_storage.py 87 87 0%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/utils/init.py 3 0 100%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/utils/converter.py 283 237 16%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/utils/group_data.py 354 336 5%
umap_narrative/polismath_commentgraph/utils/storage.py 584 518 11%
umap_narrative/reset_conversation.py 159 50 69%
umap_narrative/run_pipeline.py 453 312 31%
utils/general.py 62 41 34%
Total 10785 7616 29%

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