Add cambrian-crocodile-investing curated skill

skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/LICENSE.txt

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skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: cambrian-crocodile-investing
+description: Analyze companies, industries, or portfolio ideas with a "Cambrian Crocodile" style commodity-cycle value framework. Use when Codex needs to extract or apply 寒武纪的鳄鱼's investing methodology, summarize his thinking, judge whether an opportunity matches his style, or produce an investment memo centered on production assets, supply-demand cycles, low-price accumulation, patience, and cash-flow discipline.
+---
+
+# Cambrian Crocodile Investing
+
+## Overview
+
+Use this skill to reason in the style attributed to 寒武纪的鳄鱼: treat stocks as claims on real productive assets, focus on cyclical price movements, buy heavy-asset producers when pessimism is deep, and wait for the cycle to pay.
+
+Do not present this as generic value investing. Center the analysis on supply, demand, cost curves, industry capacity, liquidation pressure, and time horizon.
+
+Read [references/methodology.md](references/methodology.md) before writing a full analysis. Read [references/source-notes.md](references/source-notes.md) when you need the evidence boundary or need to explain which conclusions are direct extraction versus reasoned inference.
+
+## Workflow
+
+1. Identify the asset being analyzed.
+2. Decide whether the business is a fit for this framework.
+3. Map the cycle.
+4. Judge the downside carrying capacity.
+5. Judge the upside asymmetry.
+6. Produce a conclusion in this style.
+
+## Step 1: Identify The Asset
+
+Start from the real-world object, not the ticker.
+
+Answer these questions first:
+
+- What does this company actually produce or control?
+- Which physical or productive asset matters most: mines, fields, factories, acreage, distribution rights, loan book, land bank, or licenses?
+- Which commodity, factor price, or balance-sheet variable drives profit?
+- Is the company a price taker living inside a cycle, or a stable compounding franchise?
+
+If the business is mainly brand-driven, software-driven, or dependent on perpetual multiple expansion, say clearly that this framework is a weak fit.
+
+## Step 2: Decide Whether The Style Fits
+
+Score fit across four dimensions:
+
+- Asset heaviness: Are there real productive assets beneath the equity?
+- Cyclicality: Do price, supply, or demand swing enough to create mispricing?
+- Survivability: Can the company endure a bad cycle without terminal impairment?
+- Simplicity: Can the main variable be observed from the outside world?
+
+Use this style aggressively only when at least three dimensions are strong.
+
+## Step 3: Map The Cycle
+
+Trace the cycle in this order:
+
+1. Supply response
+2. Demand response
+3. Inventory or capacity utilization
+4. Producer profitability
+5. Capital expenditure response
+6. Market expectations and valuation
+
+Prefer observable facts such as output, acreage, rigs, smelter utilization, housing starts, spreads, freight, imports, exports, or spot prices. Avoid beginning with management storytelling.
+
+When writing, make the cycle explicit:
+
+- What created the glut or bust?
+- What is being forced out of the system?
+- What would tighten supply?
+- What would create scarcity or pricing power?
+- What signal would prove the thesis is early versus wrong?
+
+## Step 4: Judge Downside Carrying Capacity
+
+This style cares about surviving the wait. Evaluate:
+
+- Net debt and refinancing pressure
+- Fixed-cost burden
+- Cash cost position on the industry curve
+- Asset quality versus accounting value
+- Dividend or internal cash generation that pays you to wait
+- Management's willingness to dilute, overbuild, or lever up at the wrong time
+
+Do not call something "cheap" if the balance sheet cannot outlast the cycle.
+
+## Step 5: Judge Upside Asymmetry
+
+Look for setups where a small change in price or utilization causes a large change in equity value.
+
+Prioritize:
+
+- Deep pessimism already embedded in price
+- Operating leverage to recovery
+- Asset replacement value above current enterprise value
+- A catalyst that comes from industry tightening rather than corporate promotion
+- A holding period that may be long and boring before it becomes obvious
+
+Frame the payoff as "buy low, wait, collect, and let the cycle do the heavy lifting."
+
+## Step 6: Produce The Conclusion
+
+Write the answer in five blocks:
+
+1. Core thesis in 2-4 sentences
+2. Why this matches or does not match the style
+3. Cycle map
+4. Risk controls and invalidation signals
+5. Verdict: watch, accumulate slowly, build position aggressively, hold patiently, trim into euphoria, or reject
+
+## Style Rules
+
+Use plain language and concrete economics.
+
+Do:
+
+- Talk about productive assets, supply destruction, replacement cost, and patience
+- Emphasize price paid and time horizon
+- Distinguish "temporarily bad" from "permanently impaired"
+- Prefer a concentrated list of decisive variables over long factor laundry lists
+- State when a conclusion is an inference rather than a documented view
+
+Do not:
+
+- Drift into short-term trading language
+- Rely mainly on chart patterns, sentiment indicators, or management slogans
+- Treat valuation multiples as sufficient by themselves
+- Force this framework onto asset-light growth companies
+- Ignore debt, dilution risk, or financing risk
+
+## Output Template
+
+```markdown
+## 寒武纪鳄鱼风格结论
+
+### 核心判断
+- ...
+
+### 风格匹配度
+- 匹配点:
+- 偏离点:
+
+### 周期位置
+- 当前更像:
+- 关键观测变量:
+
+### 买入逻辑
+- ...
+
+### 风险与证伪
+- ...
+
+### 操作倾向
+- 观察 / 轻仓埋伏 / 逐步加仓 / 耐心持有 / 景气兑现后减仓 / 放弃
+```
+
+## Non-Fit Cases
+
+Say the framework is low-confidence when any of these dominate:
+
+- Growth depends on product iteration more than asset scarcity
+- Value depends mainly on regulation or one-off policy discretion
+- Financial statements are too opaque to judge survivability
+- The business has no clear external cycle to observe
+
+In those cases, explain the mismatch instead of forcing a false precision.

skills/.curated/cambrian-crocodile-investing/agents/openai.yaml

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+interface:
+  display_name: "寒武纪鳄鱼投资法"
+  short_description: "提炼寒武纪的鳄鱼的周期价值投资框架、偏好与分析流程"
+  default_prompt: "Use $cambrian-crocodile-investing to analyze this company with a commodity-cycle, low-price, patient-holding framework."